Produce investment brief and portfolio scenarios with inputs, checks, findings and limitations.
2026-10-26.2 · 60 minutes estimated; work in several sessions
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Prerequisites and goal
Choose a target role and explain investment mandate. Diagnose first, then revisit the checklist as needed.
Start with diagnostics; skip explanations you can already apply independently.
Investment mandate
Define objectives, horizon, constraints and benchmark.
Define a fictional fund’s objective and investment universe.
Teaching example: A capital-preservation objective is not automatically consistent with a volatile equity portfolio.. Predict the result, independently check the key step, and compare these assumptions with the actual role. Do not use demonstration results as real-world advice.
Industry and company research
Link operating drivers to inspectable research.
Build a revenue, competition and risk research table from a filing.
Teaching example: Higher unit sales and higher prices have different implications for revenue growth.. Predict the result, independently check the key step, and compare these assumptions with the actual role. Do not use demonstration results as real-world advice.
Valuation and expectations
Separate valuation from implied expectations.
Compare base/downside values for a fictional company.
Teaching example: A valuation range reflects assumptions and is not a promise of a future price.. Predict the result, independently check the key step, and compare these assumptions with the actual role. Do not use demonstration results as real-world advice.
Returns and benchmarks
Align periods, cash flows and dividends.
Calculate total return including dividends and compare with a benchmark.
Teaching example: Price 100 to 108 plus dividend 2 gives a simple total return of 10%.. Predict the result, independently check the key step, and compare these assumptions with the actual role. Do not use demonstration results as real-world advice.
Portfolio weights and diversification
Understand how positions affect the portfolio.
Calculate two-asset portfolio return and check total weights.
Teaching example: 60% × 10% + 40% × 0% = 6%.. Predict the result, independently check the key step, and compare these assumptions with the actual role. Do not use demonstration results as real-world advice.
Investment thesis and counter-evidence
State what would change the thesis.
Write three claims with evidence, counter-evidence and tracking metrics.
Teaching example: A claim of stable margins needs evidence across periods, not only a management slogan.. Predict the result, independently check the key step, and compare these assumptions with the actual role. Do not use demonstration results as real-world advice.
Research presentation and update
Explain changing assumptions, not only a target value.
Prepare a five-minute stock pitch with risks and update triggers.
Teaching example: Explain whether a forecast revision comes from volume, price or cost.. Predict the result, independently check the key step, and compare these assumptions with the actual role. Do not use demonstration results as real-world advice.
Worked example · fictional
From a problem to inspectable work
Synthetic portfolio: starting weights 50/50, returns 20% and −10%, no rebalancing; fees are 1% of starting assets; benchmark return 6%.
Gross return = 0.5×20% + 0.5×(−10%) = 5%; net return 4%; active return 4%−6% = −2 points.
Further judgment: Net return is positive but below benchmark. How interpret it?
Separate absolute and relative performance and inspect risk and attribution
Deliver investment brief and portfolio scenarios: the calculation reference is -2; the recommendation must respect Separate absolute and relative performance and inspect risk and attribution. Separate numbers, inference and unknowns.
Failure case and repair
In Returns and benchmarks, copy tool output without definitions, then retain the conclusion when asked: Net return is positive but below benchmark. How interpret it?
Even a result of -2 does not explain when Separate absolute and relative performance and inspect risk and attribution is supported.
Gross return = 0.5×20% + 0.5×(−10%) = 5%; net return 4%; active return 4%−6% = −2 points. Then test assumptions in Investment thesis and counter-evidence.