Present evidence and decide what follows

Bind the story to evidence

Organize around problem and segment, alternatives, validation and counterexamples, delivery and economics, then the next request. Give windows, samples, definitions and sources for numbers. Separate sign-ups, activity, payments and revenue, and label simulations. Make claims open to scrutiny.

Update decisions from results

Compare expectations with results, classifying assumptions as supported, contradicted or unresolved. Continuing, narrowing, changing delivery or stopping can all be evidence-based progress. Name the next risk and acceptance condition instead of reframing every failure as insufficient marketing.

Worked example · fictional

From a problem to inspectable work

Fictional: a pitch claims 100 users, but records show 80 registrations, 20 attempts, five independent completions and no payment.

1. Correct events and denominators instead of combining them into 100.
2. Investigate completion obstacles before choosing a payment test.

Present the actual funnel and five completion records, with zero revenue; next test the main obstacle's repair.

Failure case and repair

Interpret every experiment as success.

Evidence cannot change the decision.

State one contradicted assumption and its consequence.